Home > Author > Rolf Dobelli
81 " Es gibt Dinge die wir wissen (bekannte Tatsachen), es gibt Dinge, die wir nicht wissen (bekannte Unbekannte), und es gibt Dinge, von denen wir nicht wissen, dass wir sie nicht wissen (unbekannte Unbekannte). "
― Rolf Dobelli , The Art of the Good Life
82 " Wenn man zu viel nachdenkt, schnürt man den Kopf von der Weisheit der Gefühle ab. Klingt esoterisch, ist es aber nicht, denn Emotionen entstehen genauso im Hirn wie glasklare, rationale Gedanken. Sie sind bloß eine andere Art der Informationsverarbeitung als das rationale Denken - eine ursprünglichere, aber nicht notwendigerweise schlechtere, Oft eben sogar die bessere. "
83 " Rational decision making requires you to forget about the costs incurred to date. No matter how much you have already invested, only your assessment of the future costs and benefits counts. "
― Rolf Dobelli , The Art of Thinking Clearly
84 " A mathematician is afraid of flying due to the small risk of a terrorist attack. So, on every flight he takes a bomb with him in his hand luggage. ‘The probability of having a bomb on the plane is very low,’ he reasons, ‘and the probability of having two bombs on the same plane is virtually zero! "
85 " Only the best will do? In this age of unlimited variety, rather the opposite is true: ‘good enough’ is the new optimum "
86 " If you spend fifteen minutes in a shopping mall, you will pass more people than our ancestors saw during their entire lifetimes. "
87 " Live each day as if it were your last’ is a good idea – once a week. "
88 " Live in such a way that you can still look at yourself in the mirror. "
89 " Do your best to get by with the bare facts. It will help you make better decisions. Superfluous knowledge is worthless, whether you know it or not. "
90 " Mirroring is a standard technique in sales to get exactly this effect. Here, the salesperson tries to copy the gestures, language, and facial expressions of his prospective client. If the buyer speaks very slowly and quietly, often scratching his head, it makes sense for the seller to speak slowly and quietly, and to scratch his head now and then, too. "
91 " the typical response to scarcity is a lapse in clear thinking. Assess products and services solely on the basis of their price and benefits. It should be of no importance if an item is disappearing fast, nor if any doctors from London take an interest. "
92 " Similarly, we fail to notice how our money disappears. It constantly loses its value, but we do not notice because inflation happens over time. If it were imposed on us in the form of a brutal tax (and basically that’s what it is), we would be outraged. "
93 " When you hear hoofbeats behind you, don’t expect to see a zebra "
94 " behave differently "
95 " Survivorship bias can become especially pernicious when you become a member of the ‘winning’ team. Even if your success stems from pure coincidence, you’ll discover similarities with other winners and be tempted to mark these as ‘success factors’. However, if you ever visit the graveyard of failed individuals and companies, you will realise that its tenants possessed many of the same traits that characterise your success. "
96 " To fight against the confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs – whether in terms of worldview, investments, marriage, healthcare, diet, career strategies – and set out to find disconfirming evidence. Axeing beliefs that feel like old friends is hard work, but imperative. "
97 " While his school was closed due to an outbreak of plague in 1666–7, 25-year-old Isaac Newton showed his professor, Isaac Barrow, what research he was conducting in his spare time. Barrow immediately gave up his job as a professor and became a student of Newton. What a noble gesture. What ethical behaviour. When was the last time you heard of a professor vacating his post in favour of a better candidate? And when was the last time you read about a CEO clearing out his desk when he realised that one of his 20,000 employees could do a better job? "
98 " Don’t cross a river if it is (on average) four feet deep,” warns Nassim Taleb, "
99 " WINNER’S CURSE "
100 " In a complex world, distribution is becoming more and more irregular. In other words, we will observe the Bill Gates phenomenon in ever more domains. How many visits does an average website get? "