Home > Author > Rolf Dobelli
181 " TWADDLE TENDENCY "
― Rolf Dobelli , The Art of Thinking Clearly
182 " As an enlightened person, you can only laugh at this silly superstition. But wait: What if I put it to you this way? Would you put on a freshly laundered sweater that Hitler had once worn? Probably not, right? So, it seems that you haven’t lost all respect for intangible forces, either. "
183 " Survivorship bias means this: People systematically overestimate their chances of success. Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. It is a sad walk but one that should clear your mind. "
184 " Handle with Care Expectations "
185 " asked subjects to imagine that they had purchased tickets for a ski trip to Michigan (at a price of $100) and to Wisconsin (at a price of $50)—for the same day. The tickets are nonrefundable. Which ticket are you going to keep, assuming that you prefer the Wisconsin trip? Most subjects picked the less preferred trip to Michigan because of its higher ticket price. "
186 " The more choice we have, the less satisfied we are after having made the choice. "
187 " WILL ROGERS PHENOMENON "
188 " Similarly, female models advertise cosmetics and, thus, many female consumers believe that these products make you beautiful. But it is not the cosmetics that make these women model-like. Quite simply, the models are born attractive, and only for this reason are they candidates for cosmetics advertising. "
189 " The action bias causes us to offset a lack of clarity with futile hyperactivity and comes into play when a situation is fuzzy, muddy, or contradictory. "
190 " In conclusion: We are drunk on our own ideas. To sober up, take a step back every now and then and examine their quality in hindsight. Which of your ideas from the past ten years were truly outstanding? Exactly. "
191 " Cherry Picking "
192 " Why You See Shapes in the Clouds Clustering Illusion "
193 " biases,” and I also increased my e-mail conversations "
194 " Why You Are a Slave to Your Emotions Affect Heuristic "
195 " OMISSION BIAS "
196 " We attribute success to ourselves and failures to external factors. This is the self-serving bias. "
197 " Simplicity is the zenith of a long, arduous journey, not the starting point. "
198 " LIKING BIAS "
199 " Science labels this tendency the Forer effect (or the “Barnum effect”). The Forer effect explains why the pseudosciences work so well—astrology, astrotherapy, the study of handwriting, biorhythm analysis, palmistry, tarot card readings, and séances with the dead. What’s "
200 " If you sit on the supervisory board of such an organization, ask about the “leftover cherries,” the failed projects and missed goals. "