World Politics QUOTES

1 " The first stage can be called stage of potential power… A nation is not industrial. Its people are primarily agricultural and the great majority of them are rural… Such a nation may be very powerful in a world where no nation is industrial. But compared to any industrial nation, even a small one, its power is slight...

The second stage of the power transition is the stage of the transitional growth… to an industrial stage… its power grows rapidly relative to that of the other pre-industrial nations whom it leaves behind.

Fundamental changes take places within the nation. There is great growth in industry and in the cities… Large number of people move out of farming and into industry and service occupations… They move from the country-side to the growing cities. Productivity per man-hour rises, the national income goes up sharply… Nationalism runs high and sometimes finds expression in aggressive action toward the outside…

So many of these changes have the effect of increasing the ability of the nation`s representatives to influence the behavior of other nations, i.e. of increasing the nation`s power… The changes that occur at the beginning of the industrialization process are qualitative, not just quantitative. It is these first fundamental changes that brings the great spurt in national power.

Of course, the speed at which a nation gains power depends largely upon the speed with which she industrializes, and both these factors have a great influence on the degree to which the rise of a new power upsets the international community (302-304). "

― , World Politics

3 " Thus we can say that nations that industrialize go through a power transition somewhat similar to the demographic transition described by writers on population changes. In the courses of the power transition, a nation passes from a stage of little power to a stage of greatly increased power. For convenience, the power transitions can be divided into three distinct stages: the stage of potential power; the stage of the transitional growth; the stage of the power maturity (pp. 300-306). "

― , World Politics

5 " If the theory of the balance of power has any applicability at all, it is to the politics of the first period, that pre-industrial, `dynastic` period when nations were kings and politics a sport, when there were many nations of roughly equivalent power, and when nations could and did increase their power largely through clever diplomacy, alliance and military adventures.

The theories of this book, and the theory of the power transition in particular, apply to the second period, when the major determinant of national power are population size, political organization, and industrial strength, and when shifts in power through internal development are consequently of great importance. Differential industrialization is the key to understanding the shifts in power in the 19th and 20th centuries, but it was not the key in the years before 1750 or so and it will not always be the key in the future.

Period 3 will require new theories. We cannot predict yet what they will be, for we cannon predict what the world will be like after all the nations are industrialized. Indeed, we may not have nations at all. By projecting current trends we can make guessed about the near future, but we cannon see very far ahead. What will the world be like when China and India are two major powers, as it seems likely they will be? (1958 n.n.)...

We are all bound by our own culture and our own experience, social scientists no less than other men... Social theories may be adequate for their day, but as time passes, they require revision. One of the most serious criticisms that can be made of the balance of power theory is that it has not been revised. Concepts and hypotheses applicable to the 16th century and to the politics of such units as the Italian city states have been taken and applied, without major revision, to the international politics of the twentieth-century nations such as the United States, England, and the Soviet Union. (p. 307) "

― , World Politics

7 " The third stage of the power transition is the stage of the power maturity… when the nation is fully industrial… technological change is still rapid, economic efficiency is high, national income continues to rise, but at a slower rate than previously… Bureaucratization seems to be increasing both in political and economic institutions... There is still room for much improvement in producing greater wealth and in distributing it…

But the great burst of energy characteristic of nations in the early stages of industrialization lies in the past for mature nations. They cannot again double and triple and quadruple their capital investment as they did in the early years…

The internal qualities that give a nation international power do not disappear in the stage of power maturity. They may even continue to increase, but not at the rate they did before, and to slow down even a little in a race where everyone is running forward is to run the risk of falling behind eventually. This is why the power of a nation must decline in the stage of power maturity, even though the nation continues to grow richer, more industrial and more efficient.

We must remember that power is relative, not absolute… Had all nations of the world gone through the industrial revolution and the concomitant demographic transition at the same time and at the same speed, the result would have been a great change in international relations but not necessarily any major shift in the distribution of power among nations. There would have been no power transition. However, industrialization has proceeded unevenly though the world… It is the differential spread of industrialization to the world and the resulting power transition, not some automatic `balancing` process`, that provides the framework of modern international politics (304-306). "

― , World Politics