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1 " Older and stronger firstborns dominate their younger brothers and sisters and thus tend to like the world the way it is. The siblings who follow have a harder time competing with the firstborn and consequently rebel against the status quo, developing a “revolutionary personality.” Firstborns are also more introverted and inflexible since they need less support. By contrast, laterborns are more extroverted and agreeable since they need assistance from others to compete with firstborns. "
― David Lockwood
2 " Abraham Wald pointed out how even the best minds of the US military can be fooled by the winners. His analysis showed that a careful study of survivors can tell us a lot about the non-survivors, who are sometimes difficult or impossible to observe. Most importantly, he demonstrated that we should pay close attention to both survivors and non-survivors before drawing conclusions. "
3 " We are fooled by the winners because the winners can rewrite history. "
4 " We are fooled by the winners because survivor bias distorts our thinking. Survivor bias has been defined as “a logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not.” In other words, we fail to learn from the non-survivors, those who have lost. This tendency to focus on the winners is understandable. We are fooled by the winners because the winners, whether people, objects, data, or ships that return safely to port, are often easier to observe. But in many instances, we can derive as much or even more insight from those who have lost. "
