" War could cause a rise in oil prices, but not scheduled war—since prices adjust to expectations. It has to be “in the price,” as he said. Indeed, on the news of war, oil collapsed from around $39 a barrel to almost half that value, and Tony turned his investment of three hundred thousand into eighteen million dollars. “There are so few occasions in one’s life, you can’t miss them,” he later told Nero during one of their lunches as he was convincing his non–New Jersey friend to bet on a collapse of the financial system. “Good speculative bets come to you, you don’t get them by just staying focused on the news. "

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb , Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder