" You mean that luck turns?’ ‘Exactly, Hastings. And that is where the gambler (and the murderer, who is, after all, only a supreme kind of gambler since what he risks is not his money but his life) often lacks intelligent anticipation. Because he has won he thinks he will continue to win! He does not leave the tables in good time with his pocket full. "

― Agatha Christie , The A.B.C. Murders (Hercule Poirot, #12)